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But the labor market isn’t necessarily in trouble.
“With most of the high-frequency indicators still pointing to further improvement and jobless claims falling like a stone in recent weeks … we doubt that it signals the recovery is at risk,” said Capital Economics senior US economist Michael Pearce.
A changing labor market
The job market also isn’t just snapping back to what it was before Covid-19. The dislocations across different industries and worker demographics has been too big to recover from while Covid-19 continues to infect tens of thousands of people every day.
Lower-income earners, women, Hispanic and Black workers bore the brunt of the pandemic layoffs and millions remain out of work. Yet some industries can’t find workers. That may seem contradictory, but it is proof that the job market is changing under the force of the pandemic.
Industries reliant on social interactions are still rebuilding after shuttering completely last year. The hospitality and leisure industry added 331,000 jobs last month — and more than half of that increase was positions at restaurants and bars, underscoring how beneficial the rollback of pandemic restrictions is for the industry. Yet, it is still down 2.8 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic times.
“The details of the data show signs that the pool of available labor is extremely tight,” wrote Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska in a note to clients.
Manufacturing employment declined by 18,000 jobs last month. Other areas that registered job losses were temps in business services, couriers and retail. Seasonal factors, as well as shortages could have been the reason, according to PNC chief economists Gus Faucher.
Meanwhile, average hourly earnings jumped 21 cents to $30.17 last month. That was more than economists expected, and it suggests “employers are turning to higher wages to entice workers off of their couches and also asking current employees to work longer to cover scheduling gaps,” said Simons and Markowska.
The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 35 hours last month. In manufacturing the average hours worked per week stood unchanged at 40.5 hours.
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